Copper records biggest annual gain since 2009 as supply tightens
Copper delivered its strongest yearly performance in over a decade. The copper biggest annual gain since 2009 reflects deep structural shifts across global supply chains and energy markets. The metal surged on tightening supply, aggressive shipping flows, and expanding long-term demand linked to electrification.
In 2025, copper rallied 42% on the London Metal Exchange, becoming the top performer among six industrial metals. Prices reached repeated record highs before settling 1.1% lower at $12,558.50 per ton on the final trading day. The peak arrived on Monday at $12,960 per ton.
This copper biggest annual gain since 2009 was not driven by speculation alone. Instead, measurable disruptions, geopolitical trade expectations, and long-range energy transformation combined to reshape the market.
Tariff expectations accelerate global copper flows
The rally intensified as traders rushed shipments into the United States. The motivation was clear. Anticipation of potential U.S. tariffs on primary copper in 2026 reopened arbitrage opportunities. Consequently, copper availability tightened outside the U.S.
More than 650,000 tons of copper entered the U.S., according to analysis from StoneX Financial. As a result, two-thirds of global visible stocks are now held within COMEX. Meanwhile, supply outside U.S. markets contracted sharply.
Although underlying demand in China softened, tariff-driven flows dominated price behavior. Furthermore, the price spread between markets narrowed in December as the LME experienced a powerful late-year surge.
Mining disruptions compound supply constraints
Physical supply constraints reinforced the rally. Several severe incidents disrupted production across major mining regions.
A deadly accident occurred at the world’s second-largest copper mine in Indonesia. Additionally, an underground flood hit operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo. At the same time, a fatal rock blast struck a mine in Chile.
Each disruption further restricted availability. Therefore, the supply side tightened just as financial flows accelerated. Together, these forces propelled the copper biggest annual gain since 2009.
China’s slowdown clouds near-term demand outlook
Despite the rally, near-term demand remains uneven. China, the world’s largest copper consumer, continues to struggle.
The country’s property sector has faced a prolonged downturn. This weakness has reduced demand for copper plumbing and wiring. Moreover, sluggish consumer spending has dampened purchases of finished goods, including electronic appliances.
Nevertheless, short-term softness has not undermined long-term projections.
Electrification anchors long-term copper demand
Long-term demand remains structurally strong. BloombergNEF projects that global copper consumption could rise by more than one-third by 2035 under its baseline scenario.
This growth is driven by the expansion of:
- Solar energy installations
- Wind power generation
- Electric vehicle adoption
- Global power grid development
These forces ensure that copper remains central to global energy transformation. Accordingly, the copper biggest annual gain since 2009 may represent the opening phase of a prolonged demand cycle.
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Market positioning heading into 2026
As 2025 closes, copper sits at record levels. Supply remains constrained. Trade policy uncertainty persists. Meanwhile, electrification demand continues to build.
Therefore, market participants enter 2026 facing an environment defined by tight inventories, geopolitical sensitivity, and accelerating structural demand.
Will copper’s historic rally prove to be the beginning of a longer commodity super-cycle?
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